AI Article Synopsis

  • Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a serious condition in patients with liver cirrhosis that significantly increases mortality risks, prompting researchers to create a survival prediction model.
  • A prognostic model was developed using data from 309 patients and validated with another group of 141 patients, focusing on factors like age, bilirubin levels, sodium levels, and history of hypertension or hepatic encephalopathy to estimate 1-year survival rates.
  • The final nomogram tool showed better accuracy in predicting survival compared to existing models and demonstrated reliable performance in a separate patient group, suggesting it could be beneficial for clinical use.

Article Abstract

Background And Aims: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is one of the leading causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. We aimed to establish a prognostic model to evaluate the 1-year survival of cirrhosis patients after the first episode of SBP.

Methods: A prognostic model was developed based on a retrospective derivation cohort of 309 cirrhosis patients with first-ever SBP and was validated in a separate validation cohort of 141 patients. We used Uno's concordance, calibration curve, and decision curve (DCA) analysis to evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical net benefit of the model.

Results: A total of 59 (19.1%) patients in the derivation cohort and 42 (29.8%) patients in the validation cohort died over the course of 1 year. A prognostic model in nomogram form was developed with predictors including age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92-1.71], total serum bilirubin (HR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.28-2.14), serum sodium (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90-0.98), history of hypertension (HR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.44-4.41) and hepatic encephalopathy (HR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.13-3.73). The nomogram had a higher concordance (0.79) compared with the model end-stage liver disease (0.67) or Child-Turcotte-Pugh (0.71) score. The nomogram also showed acceptable calibration (calibration slope, 1.12; Bier score, 0.15±0.21) and optimal clinical net benefit in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: This prediction model developed based on characteristics of first-ever SBP patients may benefit the prediction of patients' 1-year survival.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8516845PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.14218/JCTH.2021.00031DOI Listing

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

prognostic model
16
cirrhosis patients
12
survival cirrhosis
8
patients
8
patients first-ever
8
spontaneous bacterial
8
bacterial peritonitis
8
1-year survival
8
model developed
8
developed based
8

Similar Publications

Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?

Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!