Construction of early risk prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants.

Objectives: To construct risk prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in preterm infants on postnatal days 3, 7, and 14.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on the medical data of 414 preterm infants, with a gestational age of <32 weeks and a birth weight (BW) of <1 500 g, who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit from July 2019 to April 2021. According to the diagnostic criteria for BPD revised in 2018, they were divided into a BPD group with 98 infants and a non-BPD group with 316 infants. The two groups were compared in terms of general status, laboratory examination results, treatment, and complications. The logistic regression model was used to identify the variables associated with BPD. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of models.

Results: The logistic regression analysis showed that BW, asphyxia, grade III-IV respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), acute chorioamnionitis, interstitial pneumonia, fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO), and respiratory support mode were the main risk factors for BPD (<0.05). The prediction models on postnatal days 7 and 14 were established as logit (P) =-2.049-0.004×BW (g) +0.686×asphyxia (no=0, yes=1) +1.842×grade III-IV RDS (no=0, yes=1) +0.906×acute chorioamnionitis (no=0, yes=1) +0.506×interstitial pneumonia (no=0, yes=1) +0.116×FiO (%) +0.816×respiratory support mode (no=0, nasal tube=1, nasal continuous positive airway pressure=2, conventional mechanical ventilation=3, high-frequency mechanical ventilation=4) and logit (P) =-1.200-0.004×BW (g) +0.723×asphyxia+2.081×grade III-IV RDS+0.799×acute chorioamnionitis+0.601×interstitial pneumonia+0.074×FiO (%) +0.800×respiratory support mode, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.876 and 0.880, respectively, which was significantly larger than the AUC of the prediction model on postnatal day 3 (<0.05).

Conclusions: BW, asphyxia, grade III-IV RDS, acute chorioamnionitis, interstitial pneumonia, FiO, and respiratory support mode are the main risk factors for BPD and can be used to construct risk prediction models. The prediction models on postnatal days 7 and 14 can effectively predict BPD.