The discouragingly high rates of attrition in drug development, and in particular in Phase 2, warrant a closer look at the decision criteria applied for investment in the next phase (Phase 3). We have in this article evaluated Stop/Go criteria after Phase 2, based on a model encompassing both Phase 2 and 3, as well as the eventual outcome on the market. The results indicate that the value of a drug project is often maximized if rather liberal decision criteria are applied. The routine adherence to standard criteria, e.g. requiring significance at 5% level, may lead to an unduly high rate of false negative decisions. This might ultimately hamper the productivity of drug development and leading to potentially useful drugs not being taken forward to benefit the intended patients.
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