Is neural network better than logistic regression in death prediction in patients after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction?

Background: There is a need to develop patient classification methods and adjust post-discharge care to improve survival after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

Aims: The study aimed to determine whether a neural network (NN) is better than logistic regression (LR) in mortality prediction in STEMI patients.

Methods: The study included patients from the Polish Registry of Acute Coronary Syndromes (PL-ACS). Patients with the first anterior STEMI treated with the primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) of the left anterior descending (LAD) artery between 2009 and 2015 and discharged alive were included in the study. Patients were randomly divided into three groups: learning (60%), validation (20%), and test group (20%). Two models (LR and NN) were developed to predict 6-month all-cause mortality. The predictive values of LR and NN were evaluated with the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUROC), and the comparison of AUROC for learning and test groups was performed. Validation of both methods was performed in the same group.

Results: Out of 175 895 patients with acute coronary syndrome, 17 793 were included in the study. The 6-month all-cause mortality was 5.9%. Both NN and LR had good predictive values. Better results were obtained in the NN approach regarding the statistical quality of the models - AUROC 0.8422 vs. 0.8137 for LR (P <0.0001). AUROCs in the test groups were 0.8103 and 0.7939, respectively (P = 0.037).

Conclusions: The neural network may have a better predictive value for mortality than logistic regression in patients after the first STEMI.