Prognostic assessment of the zone of occurrence of radiation combined injuries within a nuclear blast area.

Background: A detonation of nuclear weapon (NW) is considered as one of the most devastating radiological scenarios in the list of modern global threats. An essential proportion of victims in a mass casualty radiation event may require an immediate medical care due to radiation combined injuries (RCI). Surprisingly, there is a lack of clear guidance for quantitative prognosis of the spatial distribution of expected RCI casesin a given nuclear explosion scenario.

Purpose: This work is aimed at the presentation of a new, improved model, allowing more confident evaluation of the contributions from different NW destructive forces to RCI formation, thus leading to more accurate approximation of the zone around the epicenter for a guided search for RCI cases.

Materials And Methods: The model is made compatible with a classic approach and provides the estimates of radial distance from the epicenter, at which NW explosion can produce RCI. Mathematical formalism comprises a set of equations for the reciprocal assessment of a distance-effect for radiation dose (separately for neutrons and gamma-rays), thermal wave and blast shock wave depending on the NW type, detonation yield and altitude, environmental conditions (i.e. season) and shielding factors. The model's capabilities were demonstrated using an example of the RCI grade causing a profound operational performance decrement of military personnel in two marginal scenarios: Troops deployed in an open area or a tank crew.

Results: A remarkable difference in the expected radial zones of possible RCI occurrence was found between the actions of a 'historical' atomic bomb, thermonuclear weapons, and low-yield neutron munitions, also with a noticeable impact of the season factor (summer/winter). For a tank crew the clinically manageable RCI are possible only in very high yield explosion scenarios, while the damage caused by radiation alone possess much higher risk.

Conclusions: Suggested formalism may provide guidance for a preliminary planning of countermeasures, targeting of radiation reconnaissance, and clarification of triage results in a broad range of radiological scenarios based on NW detonation. Further improvement of the model is possible by considering neutrons' and gamma-rays' relative biological efficacy, possible shielding factors, and a synergetic effect of NW's destructive forces.