CT-Based Radiomics Helps to Predict Residual Lung Lesions in COVID-19 Patients at Three Months after Discharge.

Background: In this study, our focus was on pulmonary sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to develop and validate CT-based radiomic models for predicting the presence of residual lung lesions in COVID-19 survivors at three months after discharge.

Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 162 COVID-19 confirmed patients in our hospital (84 patients with residual lung lesions and 78 patients without residual lung lesions, at three months after discharge). The patients were all randomly allocated to a training set ( = 114) or a test set ( = 48). Radiomic features were extracted from chest CT images in different regions (entire lung or lesion) and at different time points (at hospital admission or at discharge) to build different models, sequentially, or in combination, as follows: (1) Lesion_A model (based on the lesion region at admission CT); (2) Lesion_D model (based on the lesion region at discharge CT); (3) Δlesion model (based on the lesion region at admission CT and discharge CT); (4) Lung_A model (based on the lung region at admission CT); (5) Lung_D model (based on the lung region at discharge CT); (6) Δlung model (based on the lung region at admission CT and discharge CT). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the predictive performances of the radiomic models.

Results: Among the six models, the Lesion_D and the Δlesion models achieved better predictive efficacy, with AUCs of 0.907 and 0.927, sensitivity of 0.898 and 0.763, and specificity of 0.855 and 0.964 in the training set, and AUCs of 0.875 and 0.837, sensitivity of 0.920 and 0.680, and specificity of 0.826 and 0.913 in the test set, respectively.

Conclusions: The CT-based radiomic models showed good predictive effects on the presence of residual lung lesions in COVID-19 survivors at three months after discharge, which may help doctors to plan follow-up work and to reduce the psychological burden of COVID-19 survivors.