Are Cenozoic relict species also climatic relicts? Insights from the macroecological evolution of the giant sedges of Carex sect. Rhynchocystis (Cyperaceae).

Premise: Most of the Paleotropical flora widely distributed in the Western Palearctic became extinct during the Mio-Pliocene as a result of global geoclimatic changes. A few elements from this Cenozoic flora are believed to remain as relicts in Macaronesia, forming part of the laurel forests. Although the origins of the present species assembly are known to be heterogeneous, it is unclear whether some species should be considered climatic relicts with conserved niches. An ideal group for studying such relict characteristics is a Miocene lineage of Carex sect. Rhynchocystis (Cyperaceae), which comprises four species distributed in mainland Palearctic and Macaronesia.

Methods: We reconstructed the current and past environmental spaces for extant mainland and Macaronesian species, as well as for Pliocene fossils. We also studied the bioclimatic niche evolution. Species distribution modeling and ensemble small modeling were performed to assess the potential distribution over time.

Results: Climatic niche analyses and distribution modeling revealed that the ecological requirements of Macaronesian species did not overlap with those of either mainland species or with the Pliocene fossils. Conversely, the niches of mainland species displayed significant similarity and equivalence.

Conclusions: Macaronesian species are not climatic relicts from the Paleotropical flora, but instead seem to have changed the ecological niche of their ancestors. By contrast, despite their ancient divergence (Late Miocene), mainland C. pendula and C. agastachys show conserved niches, with competitive exclusion likely shaping their mostly allopatric ranges.