Background: Inflammation markers have an important effect on tumor proliferation, invasion, and metastasis. Oligometastatic disease (OMD) is an intermediate state between widespread metastases and locally confined disease, where curative strategies may be effective for some patients. We aimed to explore the predictive value of inflammatory markers in patients with oligometastatic colorectal cancer (OMCC) and build a nomogram to predict the prognosis of these patients.
Methods: Two hundred nine patients with OMCC were retrospectively collected in this study. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression analysis were used to estimate overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). A multivariate Cox analysis model was utilized to establish the nomogram. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were established to verify the validity and accuracy of the prediction model.
Results: According to the multivariate analysis, decreased platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) might independently improve OS in patients with OMCC (HR = 2.396, 95% CI 1.391-4.126, P = 0.002). Metastases of extra-regional lymph nodes indicated poor OS (HR = 2.472, 95% CI 1.247-4.903, P = 0.010). While the patients with early N stage had better OS (HR = 4.602, 95% CI 2.055-10.305, P = 0.001) and PFS (HR = 2.100, 95% CI 1.364-3.231, P = 0.007). Primary tumor resection (HR = 0.367, 95% CI 0.148-0.908, P = 0.030) and lower fibrinogen (HR = 2.254, 95% CI 1.246-4.078, P = 0.007) could significantly prolong the OS in patients with OMCC. PLR, metastases of extra-regional lymph nodes, N stage, primary tumor resection, and fibrinogen were used to make up the nomogram. The C-index and area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC in nomogram were 0.721 and 0.772 respectively for OS, showed good consistency between predictive probability of OS and actual survival.
Conclusions: Decreased PLR could predict a good prognosis in patients with OMCC. The nomogram including inflammatory factors and clinicopathological markers was credible and accurate to predict survivals in patients with OMCC.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12957-021-02406-z | DOI Listing |
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