Competing Nomogram for Late-Period Breast Cancer-Specific Death in Patients with Early-Stage Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer.

Background: More than half of early breast cancer recurrences occur after 5 years from the initial diagnosis. An individualized estimate of the risk of late-period breast cancer-specific death (LP-BCSD) after 5 years of endocrine therapy (ET) can improve decision-making for extended endocrine therapy (EET).

Materials And Methods: A total of 147,059 eligible patients with breast cancer who survived 5+ years after diagnosis between 1990 and 2007 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses based on the competing risk regression model were used to evaluate predictive factors for high risk of LP-BCSD or late-period non-breast cancer-specific death (LP-non-BCSD). Significant factors were used to build a nomogram to individualize estimates of LP-BCSD or LP-non-BCSD.

Results: The 5- and 10-year LP-BCSD rates were 5.7% and 10.1%, respectively, and the 5- and 10-year LP-non-BCSD rates were 6.7% and 15.5%, respectively. Young age, black race, single marital status, poor differentiation, large tumor size, lymph node metastasis, and estrogen receptor-positive/progesterone receptor-negative (ER+/PR-) status were independent predictive factors for high risk of LP-BCSD. Age was the most important factor for predicting high risk of LP-non-BCSD. The nomograms, which were based on significant factors identified by the competing risk regression model. A risk score system based on the competing risk nomogram was established to describe the relative risk of LP-BCSD and LP-non-BCSD.

Conclusion: This study explored the novel endpoint of LP-BCSD for further clinical trials. The risk score system might be highly useful for patient counseling, especially in discussing EET options with elderly or comorbid patients.