Predicting disclosure latency in substantiated cases of child sexual abuse.

Objective: Children who experience sexual abuse (CSA) often delay disclosure, thus impeding early interventions. This study explores predictors of disclosure latency in a sample of forensically substantiated cases.

Methods: Court files were analyzed for a total of 124 cases of CSA. The ground truth of the alleged victims' statements had been substantiated by at least one inclusion criterion-an evaluation of the alleged victims' statement as credible by psychological experts applying Statement Validity Assessment (SVA), or the conviction of the suspected offender by the court. Six possible predictors of disclosure latency were tested individually and in a joint negative binomial regression model.

Results: Younger age of the child at abuse onset and intrafamilial (vs. extrafamilial) child-perpetrator relationships (including stepparents) were associated with prolonged disclosure latency. No predictive evidence was found for the child's gender, severity of abuse, or offender's usage of violent or nonphysical strategies to prevent disclosure.

Conclusion: This study contributes to understanding the processes of disclosure by reassessing formerly identified predictors of disclosure latency in a sample of forensically substantiated cases. Results are in line with suggestions to further develop effective prevention programs for younger children (e.g., for elementary school) and to explicitly discuss the issue of intrafamilial abuse.