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A Koopman operator-based prediction algorithm and its application to COVID-19 pandemic and influenza cases.
Sci Rep
March 2024
AIMdyn Inc., Santa Barbara, CA, 93101, USA.
Future state prediction for nonlinear dynamical systems is a challenging task. Classical prediction theory is based on a, typically long, sequence of prior observations and is rooted in assumptions on statistical stationarity of the underlying stochastic process. These algorithms have trouble predicting chaotic dynamics, "Black Swans" (events which have never previously been seen in the observed data), or systems where the underlying driving process fundamentally changes.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFInteractions Between Heavy Metal Exposure and Blood Biochemistry in an Urban Population of the Black Swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia.
Arch Environ Contam Toxicol
February 2024
School of Science, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne, VIC, 3083, Australia.
There is growing recognition of the threat posed to wildlife by pollutants. Waterbirds are robust bioindicators of ecosystem health, and metal toxicity is a threat to these species in waterways worldwide. Urban waterbirds are likely to be at the highest risk of heavy metal exposure, but this issue has not been widely explored in Australia.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFRisk science applied to major risk events in history.
Risk Anal
August 2024
Risk Science, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway.
Major risk events in history are often labeled as black swans or as unforeseeable given the risk policies and procedures existing at the time. Hindsight suggests that many of these events could have been foreseeable. This article explores past risk events, (1) analyzes how risk science principles apply to those events, and (2) studies gaps and opportunities for risk science using the lenses of consequences, uncertainty, and knowledge as they relate to evidence used for risk assessment prior to the risk event.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFDarwin's feathers: Eco-evolutionary biology, predictions and policy.
Adv Mar Biol
November 2023
Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Gaverstraat, Geraardsbergen, Belgium; Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, KULeuven, Deberiotstraat, Leuven, Belgium.
The scientific community is often asked to predict the future state of the environment and, to do so, the structure (biodiversity) and the functions (ecosystem functioning) of the investigated systems must be described and understood. In his "handful of feathers" metaphor, Charles Darwin explained the difference between simple and predictable systems, obeying definite laws, and complex (and unpredictable) systems, featured by innumerable components and interactions among them. In order not to waste efforts in impossible enterprises, it is crucial to ascertain if accurate predictions are possible in a given domain, and to what extent they might be reliable.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMetagenomic analysis of gut microbiome and resistome of Whooper and Black Swans: a one health perspective.
BMC Genomics
October 2023
College of Veterinary Medicine, Henan Agricultural University, No. 15 Longzihu University Area, Zhengzhou New District, Zhengzhou, 450046, China.
Background: With the promotion of "One Health," the health of animals and their impact on the environment have become major concerns recently. Widely distributed in China, the whooper swans (Cygnus cygnus) and black swans (Cygnus atratus) are not only important to the ecological environment, but they may also potentially influence public health security. The metagenomic approach was adopted to uncover the impacts of the gut microbiota of swans on host and public health.
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