Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Studies have reported a significant association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and increased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the magnitude of the risk and whether this risk changes with the severity of NAFLD remains uncertain. We performed a meta-analysis of observational studies to quantify the magnitude of the association between NAFLD and risk of incident CVD events.

Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from database inception to July 1, 2021, to identify eligible observational studies examining the risk of incident CVD events amongst adult (age ≥18 years) individuals with and without NAFLD and in which NAFLD was diagnosed by imaging, International Classification of Diseases codes, or liver biopsy. The primary outcomes were CVD death, non-fatal CVD events, or both. Data from selected studies were extracted, and meta-analysis was performed using random-effects models to obtain summary hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. The quality of the evidence was assessed with the Cochrane risk of bias tool. This study is registered on Open Science Framework, number osf.io/5z7gf.

Findings: We identified 36 longitudinal studies with aggregate data on 5 802 226 middle-aged individuals (mean age 53 years [SD 7]) and 99 668 incident cases of fatal and non-fatal CVD events over a median follow-up of 6·5 years (IQR 5·0-10·2). NAFLD was associated with a moderately increased risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events (pooled random-effects HR 1·45, 95% CI 1·31-1·61; I=86·18%). This risk markedly increased across the severity of NAFLD, especially the stage of fibrosis (pooled random-effects HR 2·50, 95% CI 1·68-3·72; I=73·84%). All risks were independent of age, sex, adiposity measures, diabetes, and other common cardiometabolic risk factors. Sensitivity analyses did not modify these results.

Interpretation: NAFLD is associated with an increased long-term risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. CVD risk is further increased with more advanced liver disease, especially with higher fibrosis stage. These results provide evidence that NAFLD might be an independent risk factor for CVD morbidity and mortality.

Funding: None.