Evaluating the long-term impact of projected climate on rice-lentil-groundnut cropping system in Lower Gangetic Plain of India using crop simulation modelling.

Most simulations of food production in response to various climates to date have used simulations of the same crop over multiple years. This study evaluated the impact of projected climate on performance of rice-lentil-groundnut cropping sequence in New Alluvial Zone of West Bengal, India, using DSSAT model. The study period consisted of baseline (1980-2010), mid-century (2040-2069) and end-century (2070-2099). Advancement in days to anthesis (2-13 days) was simulated for rice during the future periods. For lentil and groundnut, average advancement in days to anthesis was 1 day. Days to maturity were shortened by 3-16 days for rice and 0-7 days for lentil. Nevertheless, for groundnut, the days to maturity were simulated to increase by 1-9 days. The impact on final biomass and yield was simulated with and without CO fertilization, and the positive impact of CO fertilization was prominent for all the three crops. When CO fertilization effect was considered, the yield of rice was projected to increase by 11-32%. On the other hand, yield of lentil and groundnut was estimated to change by - 31 to - 12% and - 33 to + 8%, respectively. Enhanced CO could mitigate the magnitude of yield reduction due to enhanced temperature. Rice was benefited due to the carryover effect of residue from preceding groundnut and, hence, could sustain the yield on a long term. The study could also quantify the uncertainty in simulation of yield due to selection of GCMs.