Introduction: This study observes the results of outbreak and mortality in three comparable countries that have been widely affected: Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden. These countries carried out “non-pharmaceutical interventions” at three different levels, from lockdown (Belgium) to social distancing (Sweden).
Objective: This study examines the effectiveness of general and undifferentiated interventions (lockdown) and their side effects. It implements models as a decision-making and crisis management tool. It examines relevant statistical predictive use (hospitalization and mortality projections) in the case of a versatile coronavirus outbreak.
Results: General non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdown, shut down, social distancing) did not “delay” the peak or “flatten” the curves.
Conclusion: Non-targeted “Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions” (NPIs) do not have any direct effect on the R indicator (basic reproductive number). On the other hand, overly intense NPIs keep R above the imagined level.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/spub.212.0255 | DOI Listing |
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