Risk of atrial fibrillation is increased in patients with exfoliation syndrome: the Utah project on exfoliation syndrome (UPEXS).

Purpose: Exfoliation syndrome, a systemic disorder with ocular manifestations, is associated with lysyl oxidase-like gene variants. Along with transforming growth factor beta-1, lysyl oxidase-like 1 is a key enzyme in stabilizing extracellular matrix and remodelling collagen/elastin. Given the role that transforming growth factor beta-1, lysyl oxidase-like gene variants and fibrosis play in atrial fibrillation, an association with exfoliation syndrome was investigated.

Methods: An exfoliation syndrome cohort of 2803 patients and an atrial fibrillation cohort of 43 694 patients aged 60-90 years at disease onset were identified using the Utah Population Database (1996-2015). Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate risk of atrial fibrillation in exfoliation syndrome patients and risk of exfoliation syndrome in atrial fibrillation patients compared with respective 5:1 sex- and age-matched control cohorts. Kaplan-Meier curves were examined to assess survival in atrial fibrillation patients by exfoliation syndrome status.

Results: Exfoliation syndrome patients had a 21% greater risk (95% CI 1.06-1.37; p < 0.0001) of atrial fibrillation. This was more pronounced in exfoliation syndrome patients with no hypertension history, who exhibited a 52% increased atrial fibrillation risk (95% CI 1.27-1.82; p < 0.0001). Atrial fibrillation patients exhibited a 20% increased risk of exfoliation syndrome (95% CI 1.07-1.35; p = 0.003), while atrial fibrillation patients with no hypertension had a 72% higher exfoliation risk (95% CI 1.45-2.03; p < 0.0001). Atrial fibrillation patients with exfoliation syndrome had a higher estimated probability of survival (alive at study end or at last follow-up) compared with patients with no exfoliation history (p < 0.0001, log-rank test).

Conclusions: Exfoliation syndrome patients were at a statistically significant increased risk of atrial fibrillation. Similarly, atrial fibrillation patients were at a statistically significant higher risk of exfoliation, particularly when hypertension history was absent.