Oil prices and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak.

Resour Policy

Faculty of Economics and Law, University of Finance-Marketing, Ho Chi Minh City,Viet Nam.

Published: October 2021

AI Article Synopsis

  • The paper analyzes spillover effects between crude oil prices and agricultural commodity markets during the Covid-19 outbreak using two models.
  • Findings show increased return spillover during the crisis compared to pre-Covid-19 times, with varying intensity and direction of these interactions over the study period.
  • The results highlight significant differences among agricultural commodities in their spillover effects on crude oil prices, offering valuable insights for investors and policymakers.

Article Abstract

This paper represents an analysis of the spillover effects and time-frequency connectedness between crude oil prices and agricultural commodity markets using both the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and the wavelet coherence model to evaluate whether the time-varying return spillover index exhibited the intensity and direction of transmission during the Covid-19 outbreak. Overall, the current results shed light on that in comparison with the pre-Covid-19 period, and the return spillover is more apparent during the Covid-19 crisis. However, levels of the intensity of this relationship vary through the period of research, with several intervals witnessing both negative and positive interactions. Further, our findings indicate significant heterogeneity among agriculture commodity markets in the degree of spillover to crude oil prices over time, amplifying our understanding of the economic channels through which the agriculture commodity markets are correlated. More importantly, there exist significant dependent patterns about the information spillovers across the crude oil and agriculture commodity markets might provide prominent implications for portfolio managers, investors, and government agencies.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8434820PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102236DOI Listing

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