Reinfection and multiple viral strains are among the latest challenges in the current COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, epidemic models often consider a single strain and perennial immunity. To bridge this gap, we present a new epidemic model that simultaneously considers multiple viral strains and reinfection due to waning immunity. The model is general, applies to any viral disease and includes an optimal control formulation to seek a trade-off between the societal and economic costs of mitigation. We validate the model, with and without mitigation, in the light of the COVID-19 epidemic in England and in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. The model can derive optimal mitigation strategies for any number of viral strains, whilst also evaluating the effect of distinct mitigation costs on the infection levels. The results show that relaxations in the mitigation measures cause a rapid increase in the number of cases, and therefore demand more restrictive measures in the future.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8445490PMC
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0257512PLOS

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

viral strains
12
optimal control
8
multiple viral
8
mitigation
5
modelling optimal
4
control multi
4
multi strain
4
strain epidemics
4
epidemics application
4
application covid-19
4

Similar Publications

Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?

Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!