AI Article Synopsis
- The level five (L5) lockdown in South Africa was implemented as a strict measure to curb COVID-19 transmission, and its impact was assessed in this study.
- Data collected from March 5 to April 30, 2020, indicated that a significant percentage of confirmed cases occurred during the lockdown period, with a forecast suggesting many more cases would have emerged without it.
- While the L5 lockdown effectively reduced the overall incidence of COVID-19, certain provinces experienced higher case rates during this period, indicating mixed outcomes in different regions.
Article Abstract
Introduction: the level five (L5) lockdown was a very stringent social distancing measure taken to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infections. This study assessed the impact of the L5 lockdown and its association with the incidence of COVID-19 cases in South Africa (SA).
Methods: data was obtained from the National Department of Health (NDoH) from the 5 March to the 30 April 2020. A basic reproductive number (R0) and a serial interval were used to calculate estimated cases (EC). A double exponential smoothing model was used to forecast the number of cases during the L5 lockdown period. A Poisson regression model was fitted to describe the association between L5 lockdown status and incident cases.
Results: a total of 5,737 laboratory-confirmed cases (LCC) were reported by 30 April 2020, 4,785 (83%) occurred during L5 lockdown. Our model forecasted 30,629 cases of COVID-19 assuming L5 lockdown was not imposed. High incidence rates of COVID-19 were recorded in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga Provinces during the L5 lockdown compared to the other provinces. Nationally, the incident rate of COVID-19 was 68.00% higher in L5 lockdown than pre-lockdown for LCC.
Conclusion: the L5 lockdown was very effective in reducing the incidence of COVID-19 cases. However, the incident rates of LCC and EC were higher nationally, and in some provinces during the L5 lockdown.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8418176 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.11604/pamj.2021.39.144.28201 | DOI Listing |
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