Lung ultrasound as a predictor of mortality of patients with COVID-19.

Objective: To evaluate the performance of lung ultrasound to determine short-term outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit.

Methods: This is a Prospective, observational study. Between July and November 2020, 59 patients were included and underwent at least two LUS assessments using LUS score (range 0-42) on day of admission, day 5th, and 10th of admission.

Results: Age was 66.5±15 years, APACHE II was 8.3±3.9, 12 (20%) patients had malignancy, 46 (78%) patients had a non-invasive ventilation/high-flow nasal cannula and 38 (64%) patients required mechanical ventilation. The median stay in ICU was 12 days (IQR 8.5-20.5 days). ICU or hospital mortality was 54%. On admission, the LUS score was 20.8±6.1; on day 5th and day 10th of admission, scores were 27.6±5.5 and 29.4±5.3, respectively (P=0.007). As clinical condition deteriorated the LUS score increased, with a positive correlation of 0.52, P <0.001. Patients with worse LUS on day 5th versus better score had a mortality of 76% versus 33% (OR 6.29, 95%CI 2.01-19.65, p. 0.003); a similar difference was observed on day 10. LUS score of 5th day of admission had an area under the curve of 0.80, best cut-point of 27, sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.78 respectively.

Conclusion: These findings position LUS as a simple and reproducible method to predict the course of COVID-19 patients.