Importance of extracellular volume fraction of the spleen as a predictive biomarker for high-risk esophago-gastric varices in patients with chronic liver diseases: A preliminary report.

Purpose: To clarify clinico-radiological factors for high-risk esophago-gastric varices (EGV), including extracellular volume fraction (ECV) of the liver, pancreas, and the spleen.

Methods: Between 2014 and 2018, 70 chronic liver disease patients who underwent 4-phase CT of the upper abdomen and either of upper gastrointestinal tract endoscopy, or actual treatment for bleeding EGV, within three months after CT, were retrospectively included. Patients were subdivided into high-risk EGV group (HRG), who had high-risk endoscopic findings or actual hemostatic treatments, and non-high-risk EGV group (NHRG). ECV of the liver, pancreas, and the spleen was measured on the ECV map generated from routine diagnostic CT data, and additional clinico-radiological factors including direct visualization of EGV on portal venous phase CT, were correlated to HRG, using both univariable and multivariable analyses.

Results: There were 8 and 62 patients in HRG, and NHRG, respectively. None had symptoms related to EGV at the time of CT examinations. Univariable analysis revealed splenic volume, liver and splenic ECVs, and EGV visualization on portal venous phase CT, as significant factors. Multivariable analysis suggested that EGV visualization, splenic ECV, and splenic volume were independently significant factors. Using these three factors, sensitivity/specificity/positive predictive value/negative predictive value/accuracy = 100/85/40/100/87% were obtained with partition model analysis.

Conclusions: High-risk EGV can be predicted with acceptable accuracy using routine diagnostic CT data including splenic ECV.