Factors associated with persistent high health care utilization in managed Medicaid.

Objectives: Prior studies have had difficulty predicting which patients will have persistent high utilization past 1 year within the Medicaid population. The objective of this study was to examine the medical diagnoses at the time of enrollment of patients with persistent high health care utilization over 24 months following enrollment in Medicaid managed care in a large integrated care setting.

Study Design: Retrospective cohort study in a large integrated managed health care system.

Methods: We identified a cohort of high utilizers (top 5% of health care costs in 2014) and extracted their electronic health record data (2014-2016). Differences in baseline characteristics of high utilizers and the general Medicaid population were determined using bivariate analysis. We used multivariable regression to determine the independent association between medical comorbidities and demographics with persistent high health care utilization over the 2 years following enrollment.

Results: Compared with the general Medicaid managed care enrollee population, schizophrenia was the only mental health diagnosis at the time of enrollment associated with persistent high health care utilization (risk ratio [RR], 1.50; 95% CI, 1.20-1.86). Additional characteristics associated with persistent high utilization included age between 31 and 50 years (RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.02-1.41), dual enrollment in Medicaid and Medicare (RR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.09-1.45), chronic pain diagnoses (RR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.04-1.53), and multimorbidity (RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.25-1.63).

Conclusions: Among adults newly enrolled in Medicaid managed care, certain diagnoses noted at the time of enrollment into the plan are associated with persistent high health care utilization over the first 2 years, suggesting that targeting early supportive case management to these individuals could optimize care and reduce health care costs.