Childhood anxious/withdrawn behaviour and later anxiety disorder: a network outcome analysis of a population cohort.

Background: Several previous studies have identified a continuity between childhood anxiety/withdrawal and anxiety disorder (AD) in later life. However, not all children with anxiety/withdrawal problems will experience an AD in later life. Previous studies have shown that the severity of childhood anxiety/withdrawal accounts for some of the variability in AD outcomes. However, no studies to date have investigated how variation in features of anxiety/withdrawal may relate to continuity prognoses. The present research addresses this gap.

Methods: Data were gathered as part of the Christchurch Health and Development Study, a 40-year population birth cohort of 1265 children born in Christchurch, New Zealand. Fifteen childhood anxiety/withdrawal items were measured at 7-9 years and AD outcomes were measured at various interviews from 15 to 40 years. Six network models were estimated. Two models estimated the network structure of childhood anxiety/withdrawal items independently for males and females. Four models estimated childhood anxiety/withdrawal items predicting adolescent AD (14-21 years) and adult AD (21-40 years) in both males and females.

Results: Approximately 40% of participants met the diagnostic criteria for an AD during both the adolescent (14-21 years) and adult (21-40 years) outcome periods. Outcome networks showed that items measuring social and emotional anxious/withdrawn behaviours most frequently predicted AD outcomes. Items measuring situation-based fears and authority figure-specific anxious/withdrawn behaviour did not consistently predict AD outcomes. This applied across both the male and female subsamples.

Conclusions: Social and emotional anxious/withdrawn behaviours in middle childhood appear to carry increased risk for AD outcomes in both adolescence and adulthood.