Evaluating a novel swallowing assessment as a predictor of mortality and recurring pneumonia in elderly patients with pneumonia.

Background: Assessment of swallowing functions in elderly people with pneumonia is important. Videofluoroscopic and videoendoscopic examinations have been known as reliable assessments of swallowing functions. However, it is often difficult to use these tools in patients with pneumonia due to their poor condition and/or inadequate hospital facilities. We have previously constructed the Assessment of Swallowing Ability for Pneumonia (ASAP) as a straightforward evaluation for swallowing function. This study investigates the efficacy of the ASAP in predicting several outcomes in elderly patients with pneumonia.

Methods: Elderly patients with pneumonia (n = 130) who were admitted to Tobata Kyoritsu Hospital from January to June 2016 were enrolled prospectively. Associations between their ASAP scores and in-hospital mortality, recurrence of pneumonia within 30 days, 6-month mortality, and detection of antibiotic-resistant bacteria were evaluated.

Results: Lower ASAP scores were associated with higher rates of in-hospital mortality, recurrence of pneumonia, and 6-month mortality. The areas under the curve were 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.96) for in-hospital mortality, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.67-0.85) for recurrence of pneumonia, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.64-0.84) for 6-month mortality, and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.52-0.82) for detection of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Multivariate analysis showed that a lower ASAP score was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality, recurrence of pneumonia, and 6-month mortality.

Conclusions: The ASAP was useful for predicting short- and long-term mortalities and recurrence of pneumonia.