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The epidemic increase in the incidence of Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinomas (OPSCCs) in several countries worldwide represents a significant public health concern. Although gender neutral HPV vaccination programmes are expected to cause a reduction in the incidence rates of OPSCCs, these effects will not be evident in the foreseeable future. Secondary prevention strategies are currently not feasible due to an incomplete understanding of the natural history of oral HPV infections in OPSCCs. The key parameters that govern natural history models remain largely ill-defined for HPV related OPSCCs and cannot be easily inferred from experimental data. Mathematical models have been used to estimate some of these ill-defined parameters in cervical cancer, another HPV related cancer leading to successful implementation of cancer prevention strategies. We outline a "double-Bayesian" mathematical modelling approach, whereby, a Bayesian machine learning model first estimates the probability of an individual having an oral HPV infection, given OPSCC and other covariate information. The model is then inverted using Bayes' theorem to reverse the probability relationship. We use data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry, SEER Head and Neck with HPV Database and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), representing the adult population in the United States to derive our model. The model contains 8,106 OPSCC patients of which 73.0% had an oral HPV infection. When stratified by age, sex, marital status and race/ethnicity, the model estimated a higher conditional probability for developing OPSCCs given an oral HPV infection in non-Hispanic White males and females compared to other races/ethnicities. The proposed Bayesian model represents a proof-of-concept of a natural history model of HPV driven OPSCCs and outlines a strategy for estimating the conditional probability of an individual's risk of developing OPSCC following an oral HPV infection.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009289 | DOI Listing |
J Immunoassay Immunochem
December 2024
Department of Oral Medicine and Oral Pathology, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.
This study is aimed at determining the prevalence of oral HPV infection and the risk indicators for oral HPV carriage in people living with HIV. Data on socio-demographics, sexual behavioral practices, and lifestyle practices of the participants were collected from 66 people living with HIV. The HIV parameters of each study participant were obtained from clinical records.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBMC Oral Health
December 2024
Department of Oncology, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Background: How common it is with the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) in the healthy and diseased oral cavity is largely unknown for Africans. In this cross-sectional study we assessed the prevalence of oral HPV and the risk factors associated with HPV contraction including sexual practice in the urban and rural Zambian population.
Methods: Urban (N = 188) and rural (N = 211) Zambian adults aged 21 years and older living in Ndola and Mansa, respectively, were interviewed about demographical data, oral and coital sexual history and tobacco and alcohol use.
Eur Radiol
December 2024
Medical Oncology Department, Hospital Clinico Universitario de Valencia-INCLIVA Biomedical Research Institute, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain.
Background: Definitive chemoradiation is the primary treatment for locally advanced head and neck carcinoma (LAHNSCC). Optimising outcome predictions requires validated biomarkers, since TNM8 and HPV could have limitations. Radiomics may enhance risk stratification.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFUltraschall Med
December 2024
Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, University Hospital Regensburg, Germany.
This CME article explores the evolving role of endosonography in otorhinolaryngology and head and neck surgery. Endosonography offers significant potential to improve imaging inside the upper respiratory tract, particularly with advancements in probe technology and imaging resolution. The article will describe the sonoanatomy of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx and the selection of probes and scanning techniques used for the various anatomical sites.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPLOS Glob Public Health
December 2024
Department of International Health, Center for Immunization Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Coinfection with human papillomavirus (HPV) and HIV compounds the risks of developing cervical, anal, and HPV-associated oral neoplasia. Safe prophylactic vaccines are available to prevent HPV infections in people with HIV(PWH). Yet, vaccine efficacy and duration of protection remain questionable.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEnter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!