AI Article Synopsis
- The study aimed to estimate the average incubation period of COVID-19 and evaluate the effectiveness of a 14-day quarantine for close contacts.
- It analyzed data from 56 studies involving 4,095 cases, concluding that the median incubation period for general transmissions is 5.8 days, while asymptomatic cases have a longer median of 7.7 days.
- The findings suggest that a 14-day quarantine is adequate for monitoring symptomatic infections, as the risk of developing symptoms after this period is very low.
Article Abstract
Purpose: To estimate the central tendency and dispersion for incubation period of COVID-19 and, in turn, assess the effect of a certain length of quarantine for close contacts in active monitoring.
Methods: Literature related to SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 was searched through April 26, 2020. Quality was assessed according to Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality guidelines. Log-normal distribution for the incubation period was assumed to estimate the parameters for each study. Incubation period median and dispersion were estimated, and distribution was simulated.
Results: Fifty-six studies encompassing 4095 cases were included in this meta-analysis. The estimated median incubation period for general transmissions was 5.8 days [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 5.3, 6.2]. Incubation period was significantly longer for asymptomatic transmissions (median: 7.7 days; 95% CI 6.3, 9.4) than for general transmissions (P = 0.0408). Median and dispersion were higher for SARS-CoV-2 incubation compared to other viral respiratory infections. Furthermore, about 12 in 10,000 contacts in active monitoring would develop symptoms after 14 days, or below 1 in 10,000 for asymptomatic transmissions. Meta-regression suggested that each 10-year increase in age resulted in an average 16% increment in length of median incubation (incubation period ratio, 1.16, 95% CI 1.01, 1.32; P = 0.0250).
Conclusion: This study estimated the median and dispersion of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation period more precisely. A 14-day quarantine period is sufficient to trace and identify symptomatic infections.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8372687 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s15010-021-01682-x | DOI Listing |
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