Determination of vulnerable regions of SARS-CoV-2 in Malaysia using meteorology and air quality data.

Unlabelled: This study aims to explore the state-wise assessment of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic spread in Malaysia with focus on influence of meteorological parameters and air quality. In this study, state-wise COVID-19 data, meteorological parameters and air quality index (AQI) were collected from March 13 to April 30, 2020, which encompass three movement control order (MCO) periods in the country. Overall, total infected cases were observed to be higher in MCO phase 1 and 2 and significantly reduced in MCO phase 3. Due to the variation in the spatial interval of population density and individual immunity, the relationship of these parameters to pandemic spread could not be achieved. The study infers that temperature (T) between 23 and 25 °C and relative humidity (RH) (70-80%) triggered the pandemic spread by increase in the infected cases in northern and central Peninsular Malaysia. Selangor, WP Kuala Lumpur and WP Putrajaya show significantly high infected cases and a definite trend was not observed with respect to a particular meteorological factor. It is identified that high precipitation (PPT), RH and good air quality have reduced the spread in East Malaysia. A negative correlation of T and AQI and positive correlation of RH with total infected cases were found during MCO phase 3. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that T, RH, PPT, dew point (DP) and AQI are the main controlling factors for the spread across the country apart from social distancing. Vulnerability zones were identified based on the spatial analysis of T, RH, PPT and AQI with reference to total infected cases. Based on time series analysis, it was determined that higher RH and T in Peninsular Malaysia and high amount of PPT, RH and good air quality in East Malaysia have controlled the spreading during MCO phase 3. The predominance of D614 mutant was observed prior to March and decreases at the end of March, coinciding with the fluctuation of meteorological factors and air quality. The outcome of this study gives a general awareness to the public on COVID-19 and the influence of meteorological factors. It will also help the policymakers to enhance the management plans against the pandemic spreading apart from social distancing in the next wave of COVID-19.

Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-021-01719-z.