Assessing environmental water requirement for groundwater-dependent vegetation in arid inland basins by combining the copula joint distribution function and the dual objective optimization: An application to the Turpan Basin, China.

Preserving groundwater-dependent terrestrial ecosystems through environmental water allocation is critical for sustainable development in arid inland basins. Assessing the environmental water requirement is challenging due to the complex relationship between vegetation growth and groundwater depth. This study proposed a new assessment method by combining the copula joint distribution function and the dual objective optimization. The copula joint distribution function was used to describe the relationship between vegetation and groundwater depth instead of the traditional regression analysis. Given an ecological protection target, the conditional probability of achieving the target was estimated using the copula joint distribution. The groundwater depth interval with relatively high probability was suitable for vegetation growth and correspondingly conducive for ecological protection. In addition to ecological protection, the socio-economic water requirement was incorporated into the environmental water assessment, resulting in a dual optimization problem that could be resolved by the ideal point method. The optimization analysis revealed a groundwater depth with a high probability of successful ecological protection and low groundwater evapotranspiration to balance vegetation and human demands for groundwater. The proposed method of environmental water assessment by combing copula joint distribution function and dual objective optimization was applied in the Turpan Basin, an arid inland basin in Northwest China. The environmental groundwater depth ranged between 6 and 20 m, and the optimized interval was 7-8 m. The optimal environmental groundwater depth resulted in a probability of 0.46 to achieve the ecological protection target and annual evapotranspiration of 983 mm. The proposed method was practical and reliable and could be an effective tool for assessing the environmental water requirement of groundwater-dependent vegetation in arid inland basins.