Mortality due to breast cancer in a region of high socioeconomic vulnerability in Brazil: Analysis of the effect of age-period and cohort.

Introduction: Breast cancer is an important public health problem worldwide, with important disparities in incidence, mortality, and survival rates between developed and developing countries due to inequalities regarding access to measures for the prevention and treatment of the disease. In Brazil, there are higher rates of incidence and a downward trend in mortality in regions of greater socioeconomic development.

Objective: To evaluate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on breast cancer mortality in women aged 20 years and older in the states of the Northeast Region of Brazil, an area of high socioeconomic vulnerability, from 1980 to 2019.

Methods: The death records were extracted from the DATASUS Mortality Information System website (Department of National Health Informatics) from the Ministry of Health of Brazil. Estimable functions were used to estimate the age-period and cohort models (APC) using the Epi library from the R statistical software version 6.4.1.

Results: The average breast cancer mortality rate for the period was 20.45 deaths per 100,000 women. The highest coefficients per 100,000 women were observed in the states of Pernambuco (21.09 deaths) and Ceará (20.85 deaths), and the lowest in Maranhão (13.58 deaths) and Piauí (15.43 deaths). In all of the locations, there was a progressive increase in mortality rates in individuals over 40 years of age, with higher rates in the last five-year period (2015-2019). There was an increase in the risk of death for the five-year period of the 2000s in relation to the reference period (1995-1999) in the Northeast region and in the states of Alagoas, Bahia, Maranhão, Paraíba, and Piauí. In addition, there was an increased risk of death for women born after the 1950s in all locations.

Conclusion: The highest mortality rates in all five-year periods analyzed were observed in states with greater socioeconomic development, with an increase in mortality rates in the 2000s, and a higher risk of death in the younger cohorts.