Predicting apneic events in preterm infants using cardio-respiratory and movement features.

Background And Objective: Preterm neonates are prone to episodes of apnea, bradycardia and hypoxia (ABH) that can lead to neurological morbidities or even death. There is broad interest in developing methods for real-time prediction of ABH events to inform interventions that prevent or reduce their incidence and severity. Using advances in machine learning methods, this study develops an algorithm to predict ABH events.

Methods: Following previous studies showing that respiratory instabilities are closely associated with bouts of movement, we present a modeling framework that can predict ABH events using both movement and cardio-respiratory features derived from routine clinical recordings. In 10 preterm infants, movement onsets and durations were estimated with a wavelet-based algorithm that quantified artifactual distortions of the photoplethysmogram signal. For prediction, cardio-respiratory features were created from time-delayed correlations of inter-beat and inter-breath intervals with past values; movement features were derived from time-delayed correlations with inter-breath intervals. Gaussian Mixture Models and Logistic Regression were used to develop predictive models of apneic events. Performance of the models was evaluated with ROC curves.

Results: Performance of the prediction framework (mean AUC) was 0.77 ± 0.04 for 66 ABH events on training data from 7 infants. When grouped by the severity of the associated bradycardia during the ABH event, the framework was able to predict 83% and 75% of the most severe episodes in the 7-infant training set and 3-infant test set, respectively. Notably, inclusion of movement features significantly improved the predictions compared with modeling with only cardio-respiratory signals.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that recordings of movement provide important information for predicting ABH events in preterm infants, and can inform preemptive interventions designed to reduce the incidence and severity of ABH events.