Probabilistic risk assessment of soil contamination related to agricultural and industrial activities.

Soil contamination related to industrial and agricultural activities were associated with many adverse health effects and climate change could exacerbate this effect. However, the evidence on this topic in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) is still scarce. We, therefore, aimed to investigate the heavy metals (HMs) concentrations in topsoil around Lake Urmia (which dried about 50 % of it in recent years). Accordingly, 96 surface soil samples were collected from an area of about 4000 km in 2019. An inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) was used to measure the HMs concentrations, including cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn). Health risk assessment of exposure to HMs was performed using Monte Carlo simulations technique. The mean concentrations of Zn, Cu, Ni, Co, Pb, Cr, As and Cd were 68.66, 35, 31.66, 15, 14.4, 11.2, 7.04, and 0.26 mg/kg, respectively, which was in the allowable range of USEPA guideline. The mean enrichment factor (EF) values for Zn, Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Co and As were1.3, 1.9, 1, 1.2, 1.7, 2.8, 1.8 and 2, respectively. Carcinogenic risks of exposure to HMs for inhalation, dermal and ingestion exposure pathways were at safe level. Similarly, the hazard index (HI) was at safe level (HI < 1). The sensitivity analysis indicated that the exposure duration (ED) for As, exposure frequency (EF) for Cd and Ni, concentration (C) for Cr and Pb had the highest impact on ELCR values. Our finding confirmed that HMs concentrations around Lake Urmia had no health risk for inhabitants.