Area under flow-volume loop may predict severe exacerbation in COPD patients with high grade of dyspnea.

Objective: Exacerbations in patients with COPD may still be unpredictable, although the general risk factors have been well defined. We aimed to determine the role of a novel parameter, area under flow-volume loop, in predicting severe exacerbations.

Methods: In this single-centre retrospective cohort study, 81 COPD patients over 40 years of age with high grade of dyspnea (having a CAT score of ≥10) and a history of ≥1 moderate exacerbation in the previous year were included. Area under flow-volume curve (AreaFE%) was obtained from pulmonary function test graph and calculated from Matlab programme. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine independent risk factors of the severe exacerbation.

Results: Patients with severe exacerbation (n = 70, 86.4 %) were older. They had lower FEV1%, FVC%, 6MWD, AreaFE% and higher CAT score than patients without exacerbation. After performing multivariate analysis, high CAT score and low AreaFE% value were found to be independent risk factors for severe exacerbation (OR: 1.12, 95 % CI: 1.065-1.724; p = 0.01 and OR: 1.18, 95 % CI: 0.732-0.974; p = 0.02).

Conclusions: We found that a low AreaFE% value was an independent risk factor in addition to a high CAT score and these both have an excellent discriminative ability in predicting the risk of severe exacerbation.