Derivation of a Clinical Score for Prediction of Recurrence Following Evacuation of Chronic Subdural Hematoma: A Retrospective Cohort Study at a National Referral Centre.

Background: Chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) is a common pathology, and recurrence is a common complication, which may be predicted by certain patient and radiologic factors. Empiric radiologic surveillance has been shown to convey no benefit.

Methods: A retrospective review of a prospectively collated database was performed. Preoperative and postoperative noncontrast computed tomography scans were reviewed. Radiologic appearance, preoperative hematoma volume, patient age, presence of bilateral hematomas, maximal hematoma thickness, and therapeutic coagulopathy were assessed as predictors. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, logistic regression, and LASSO regression were used to select potential predictors. A multivariate model was then fitted, and a score was derived.

Results: A total of 142 patients were included. Maximal hematoma thickness >12 mm (P = 0.02) and age >65 years (P = 0.01) were found to correlate with the likelihood of recurrence. Bilateral hematomas and a hyperdense or mixed density appearance were also identified on LASSO regression. Bilateral hematomas (P = 0.19), hyperdense or mixed density (P = 0.66), maximum thickness >12 mm (P = 0.01), and age >65 years (P = 0.02) were included in the multivariate model. A 6-point score was derived. A score of >3 had a sensitivity of 89% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78%-97%) and specificity of 26% (95% CI, 17%-34%) for predicting recurrence, with recurrence significantly more likely in patients with a score of 4-6 versus those with a score of 0-3 (P = 0.02).

Conclusions: Certain radiologic findings may predict the recurrence of cSDH following evacuation. The score derived may be useful in identifying patients who might benefit from routine postoperative surveillance imaging.