Incidence of concomitant illnesses in pregnancy in Indonesia: Estimates from 1990-2019, with projections to 2030.

Background: 'Indirect' causes of maternal death including concomitant illnesses such as infectious and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), accounted for 23% of maternal deaths in Indonesia in 2010. Reproductive-age women in Indonesia face a "double burden" of disease with increasing rates of NCDs and persisting rates of infectious disease. However, there is a lack of data on the burden of these diseases in pregnancy. The aim of this study was to estimate incidence of concomitant illnesses among pregnant women in Indonesia from 1990-2030.

Methods: Publicly available data was accessed including incidence of concomitant illnesses in Indonesian reproductive-age women, population data and crude birth rate data from 1990-2019, and formed basis for projections to 2030. A dataset of estimates for all variables was generated for each year and sampled from a binomial distribution. Using these estimates, pregnancy estimates and incidence in pregnant women were calculated. A cubic splines model was fitted to generate estimates of incidence of concomitant illnesses in pregnancy.

Findings: Past trends to 2019 show a decline in incident cases of infectious diseases except for HIV/AIDs, and an increase in most NCDs. In 2019, the most common disease was sexually transmitted infections. From 2020-2030, incidences of diabetes and lower respiratory infections are estimated to continue to increase.

Interpretation: With an increasing incidence of NCDs and high-incidence of infectious diseases in pregnancy, Indonesian policymakers and stakeholders should consider what evidence-based strategies and interventions are best to reduce potential impacts of concomitant illnesses on pregnancy outcomes.

Funding: Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.