A male-ABCD algorithm for hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction in HBsAg carriers.

Objective: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carriers shows gender disparity, influenced by underlying liver diseases that display variations in laboratory tests. We aimed to construct a risk-stratified HCC prediction model for HBsAg-positive male adults.

Methods: HBsAg-positive males of 35-69 years old (N=6,153) were included from a multi-center population-based liver cancer screening study. Randomly, three centers were set as training, the other three centers as validation. Within 2 years since initiation, we administrated at least two rounds of HCC screening using B-ultrasonography and α-fetoprotein (AFP). We used logistic regression models to determine potential risk factors, built and examined the operating characteristics of a point-based algorithm for HCC risk prediction.

Results: With 2 years of follow-up, 302 HCC cases were diagnosed. A male-ABCD algorithm was constructed including participant's age, blood levels of GGT (γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase), counts of platelets, white cells, concentration of DCP (des-γ-carboxy-prothrombin) and AFP, with scores ranging from 0 to 18.3. The area under receiver operating characteristic was 0.91 (0.90-0.93), larger than existing models. At 1.5 points of risk score, 26.10% of the participants in training cohort and 14.94% in validation cohort were recognized at low risk, with sensitivity of identifying HCC remained 100%. At 2.5 points, 46.51% of the participants in training cohort and 33.68% in validation cohort were recognized at low risk with 99.06% and 97.78% of sensitivity, respectively. At 4.5 points, only 20.86% of participants in training cohort and 23.73% in validation cohort were recognized at high risk, with positive prediction value of 22.85% and 12.35%, respectively.

Conclusions: Male-ABCD algorithm identified individual's risk for HCC occurrence within short term for their HCC precision surveillance.