Climatic ecological suitability and potential distribution of in western Sichuan Plateau, China based on MaxEnt model.

Based on the distribution data of obtained from field investigation and literature, the ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the distribution law and suitable area of in the western Sichuan Plateau. The prediction was made for the future changes in the suitable area of by analyzing the relationship between climate factors and dynamic distribution. The results showed that the area under curve (AUC) values of both the model training set and validation set were greater than 0.90, indicating that the model prediction results were extremely accurate. The environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of were mainly the lowest temperature in the coldest month, the coldest season precipitation, annual temperature difference and soil type, with accumulative contribution of 90.3%. The niche parameters of suitable distribution areas of were as follows: the lowest temperature in the coldest month was -18.5--5.4 ℃, the coldest season precipitation was less than 15.7 mm, the annual temperature difference was 39.5-45 ℃, and soil type was semi-leached soil, including dry red soil, cinnamon soil, gray cinnamon soil, black soil and grey forest soil. The suitable areas of were distributed in the southwest, south, central and east of the plateau at an altitude range of 1900-3600 m. The highly suita-ble areas were mainly distributed in some towns of Yajiang, Xiangcheng, Kangding, Jiulong, Daocheng, Litang, Batang, Danba, Maerkang, Xiaojin, Jinchuan, Lixian, Maoxian, . The moderately and lowly suitable areas were located in some towns of Derong, Daofu, Xinlong, Luhuo, Baiyu, Luding, Rangtang, Wenchuan, Heishui, Jiuzhaigou. The highly suitable areas were discontinuously distributed according to the direction of rivers and mountains. The moderately suitable areas were connected with the highly suitable areas, while the lowly suitable areas were the extension of the highly and moderately suitable areas. Future climate change would be beneficial to the growth of . on the western Sichuan Plateau, while the climate-suitable areas would show an overall increasing trend. Suitable areas in the low-altitude Minjiang River Basin would be more affected by climate change than those located in high-altitude areas.