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A case study of 2019-nCOV cases in Argentina with the real data based on daily cases from March 03, 2020 to March 29, 2021 using classical and fractional derivatives. | LitMetric
In this study, our aim is to explore the dynamics of COVID-19 or 2019-nCOV in Argentina considering the parameter values based on the real data of this virus from 03, 2020 to 29, 2021 which is a data range of more than one complete year. We propose a Atangana-Baleanu type fractional-order model and simulate it by using predictor-corrector (P-C) method. First we introduce the biological nature of this virus in theoretical way and then formulate a mathematical model to define its dynamics. We use a well-known effective optimization scheme based on the renowned trust-region-reflective (TRR) method to perform the model calibration. We have plotted the real cases of COVID-19 and compared our integer-order model with the simulated data along with the calculation of basic reproductive number. Concerning fractional-order simulations, first we prove the existence and uniqueness of solution and then write the solution along with the stability of the given P-C method. A number of graphs at various fractional-order values are simulated to predict the future dynamics of the virus in Argentina which is the main contribution of this paper.
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