AI Article Synopsis
- The UK government implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus pandemic that affected the spread of other infectious diseases like norovirus, but it's uncertain how future norovirus cases will trend once these restrictions are lifted.
- A mathematical model fitted to community data from 2020-2021 projects that susceptibility to norovirus has likely increased, which could lead to incidence rates returning to pre-pandemic levels or possibly doubling if contact patterns fully return.
- Ongoing national monitoring of diseases like norovirus will be crucial after NPIs are lifted to help healthcare services prepare for a potential surge in cases and increased hospital pressures.
Article Abstract
Background: To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the Government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions.
Methods: Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021.
Results: We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 to mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages.
Conclusions: Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.
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|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8288156 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.09.21260277 | DOI Listing |
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