Acute thalamic damage as a prognostic biomarker for post-traumatic epileptogenesis.

Objective: To identify magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers for post-traumatic epilepsy.

Methods: The EPITARGET (Targets and biomarkers for antiepileptogenesis, epitarget.eu) animal cohort completing T relaxation and diffusion tensor MRI follow-up and 1-month-long video-electroencephalography monitoring included 98 male Sprague-Dawley rats with traumatic brain injury and 18 controls. T imaging was performed on day (D) 2, D7, and D21 and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) on D7 and D21 using a 7-Tesla Bruker PharmaScan MRI scanner. The mean and standard deviation (SD) of the T relaxation rate, multiple diffusivity measures, and diffusion anisotropy at each time-point within the ventroposterolateral and ventroposteromedial thalamus were used as predictor variables in multi-variable logistic regression models to distinguish rats with and without epilepsy.

Results: Twenty-nine percent (28/98) of the rats with traumatic brain injury (TBI) developed epilepsy. The best-performing logistic regression model utilized the D2 and D7 T relaxation time as well as the D7 diffusion tensor data. The model distinguished rats with and without epilepsy (Bonferroni-corrected p-value < .001) with a cross-validated concordance statistic of 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.84). In a cross-validated classification test, the model exhibited 54% sensitivity and 91% specificity, enriching the epilepsy rate within the study population from the expected 29% to 71%. A model using the D2 T data only resulted in a 73% enriched epilepsy rate (regression p-value .007, cross-validated concordance 0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.80, sensitivity 29%, specificity 96%).

Significance: An MRI parameter set reporting on acute and subacute neuropathologic changes common to experimental and human TBI presents a diagnostic biomarker for post-traumatic epileptogenesis. Significant enrichment of the study population was achieved even when using a single time-point measurement, producing an expected epilepsy rate of 73%.