Toxoplasma gondii, Herpesviridae and long-term risk of transition to first-episode psychosis in an ultra high-risk sample.

Background: Ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria were introduced to identify people at imminent risk of developing psychosis. To improve prognostic accuracy, additional clinical and biological risk factors have been researched. Associations between psychotic disorders and infections with Toxoplasma gondii and Herpesviridae have been found. It is unknown if exposure to those pathogens increases the risk of transition to psychosis in UHR cohorts.

Methods: We conducted a long-term follow-up of 96 people meeting UHR criteria, previously seen at the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) clinic, a specialized service in Melbourne, Australia. Transition to psychosis was assessed using the Comprehensive Assessment of the At-Risk Mental State (CAARMS) and state public mental health records. The relationship between IgG antibodies to Herpesviridae (HSV-1, HSV-2, CMV, EBV, VZV) and Toxoplasma gondii and risk for transition was examined with Cox regression models.

Results: Mean follow-up duration was 6.46 (±3.65) years. Participants who transitioned to psychosis (n = 14) had significantly higher antibody titers for Toxoplasma gondii compared to those who did not develop psychosis (p = 0.03). After adjusting for age, gender and year of baseline assessment, seropositivity for Toxoplasma gondii was associated with a 3.6-fold increase in transition hazard in multivariate Cox regression models (HR = 3.6; p = 0.036). No significant association was found between serostatus for Herpesviridae and risk of transition.

Conclusions: Exposure to Toxoplasma gondii may contribute to the manifestation of positive psychotic symptoms and increase the risk of transitioning to psychosis in UHR individuals.