Environmental and Management Effects on Demographic Processes in the U.S. Threatened (Nutt.) Lindl. (Orchidaceae).

Populations of the U.S. threatened orchid, , are restricted to fragmented grassland and wetland habitats. We address the long-term (1998-2020) interactive effects of habitat (upland prairie vs. wetland), fire management (burned vs. unburned) and climatic variation, as well as pollination crossing effects, on population demography in 42 populations. Our analysis revealed the consistent interactive effects of habitat, dormant season burning, and climatic variation on flowering, reproduction, and survival. Burning increased flowering and population size under normal or greater than normal precipitation but may have a negative effect during drought years apparently if soil moisture stress reduces flowering and increases mortality. Trends in the number of flowering plants in populations also correspond to precipitation cycles. As with flowering and fecundity, survival is significantly affected by the interactive effects of habitat, fire, and climate. This study supports previous studies finding that . relies on a facultative outcrossing breeding system. Demographic modeling indicated that fire, normal precipitation, and outcrossing yielded greater population growth, and that greater fire frequency increased population persistence. It also revealed an ecologically driven demographic switch, with wetlands more dependent upon survivorship than fecundity, and uplands more dependent on fecundity than survivorship. Our results facilitate an understanding of environmental and management effects on the population demography of . in the prairie region of its distribution. Parallel studies are needed in the other habitats such as wetlands, especially in the eastern part of the range of the species, to provide a more complete picture.