Does Publication History Predict Future Publication Output in Orthopaedics?

Background The number of publications is widely used as a measure of academic productivity in the field of orthopaedics. How "productive" a physician is has a great influence on consideration for employment, compensation, and promotions. Predictors of potential high-output researchers would be of value to the orthopaedic department and university leadership for new faculty evaluation. Methods The study population included orthopaedic faculty from the top 10 orthopaedic institutions in the United States. Their names and the number of publications at each point in their training (medical school, residency, and fellowship) and early career (first five and 10 years following fellowship) along with a total number of publications to date were collected by using PubMed. Results Strong correlations were seen between publications during total training and publications output in the first five years following fellowship ( =0.717, P<0.0001). However, no significant correlations were found comparing publications during each stage of training and the first 10 years following fellowship. A moderate positive correlation was found when comparing publications during medical school and residency output ( =0.401, P<0.0001). Conclusions The data presented here may be utilized by department chairs during the evaluation of faculty and candidates to not interpret the number of publications during training and early career as a gauge of research interest and potential for future publications. Program directors may also use the only moderate correlation between publications in medical school and residency when evaluating applications as support of a more holistic review of applicants to determine research interest.