AI Article Synopsis
- The study presents a Reed-Frost epidemic model incorporating recursive contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission, expanding previous work on branching processes to finite populations and diverse contact networks.
- The model was numerically simulated on two types of networks: a complete graph and a square lattice, revealing a notable transition from an 'epidemic phase' to an 'immune phase' as the extent of contact tracing increased.
- The research confirms that outside the ideal scenario of complete tracing, the behavior of the contact-tracing phase transition aligns with percolation theory, and it assesses the effectiveness of recursive contact tracing in controlling outbreak spread.
Article Abstract
We introduce a Reed-Frost epidemic model with recursive contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission. This generalizes the branching-process model introduced by the authors in a previous work (Bulchandani et al 2021045004) to finite populations and general contact networks. We simulate the model numerically for two representative examples, the complete graph and the square lattice. On both networks, we observe clear signatures of a contact-tracing phase transition from an 'epidemic phase' to an 'immune phase' as contact-network coverage is increased. We verify that away from the singular line of perfect tracing, the finite-size scaling of the contact-tracing phase transition on each network lies in the corresponding percolation universality class. Finally, we use the model to quantify the efficacy of recursive contact-tracing in regimes where epidemic spread is not contained.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1478-3975/ac0fd1 | DOI Listing |
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