Prognostic utility of various multidimensional grading scales among Saudi patients with bronchiectasis.

Introduction: A number of multidimensional scoring systems, including the Bronchiectasis Severity Index (BSI), the FACED score, and the Exacerbation-FACED (Exa-FACED, a derivative of FACED), have been proposed and validated to assess the severity and prognosis in patients with bronchiectasis. Although these metrics have been validated through large multicenter efforts in Europe and Latin America, there have been no attempts at external validation in other populations.

Ojectives: The aim of this study was to validate specific multidimensional grading scales (BSI, FACED, and Exa-FACED) in predicting mortality, future exacerbations, and hospitalizations among Saudi patients with bronchiectasis.

Methods: A prospective observational cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care centre. The three multidimensional grading scales (BSI, FACED, and Exa-FACED) were calculated for each patient. Future frequent acute exacerbations (≥2/year) and severe acute exacerbations leading to hospitalization were recorded for 1 year, and all-cause mortality was monitored for up to 5 years.

Results: A total of 301 patients with bronchiectasis (mean age of 60±17 years and 66% female) were include. All Grading scales performed well in predicting 5-year survival. Area under the curve (AUC) values for BSI (0.86, 95% CI: 0.82-0.90), FACED (0.81, 95% CI: 0.76-0.85), and Ex-FACED (0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.87). The BSI (AUC=0.98, 95% CI: 0.96-0.99) performed better than FACED scoring (AUC=0.77, 95% CI: 0.71-0.81; P<0.0001) in predicting hospitalization. Exa-FACED scoring (AUC=0.84, 95% CI: 0.80-0.88) improved upon FACED scores in predicting hospitalization. The BSI (AUC=0.95, 95% CI: 0.91-0.97) fared significantly better than FACED scoring (AUC=0.76, 95% CI: 0.70-0.80; p<0.0001) in predicting frequent acute exacerbations (≥2/year). Again, Exa-FACED scoring (AUC=0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89) improved upon FACED scores in predicting frequent acute exacerbations (≥2/year).

Conclusions: All scoring systems performed adequately in 5-year mortality projections. Although Exa-FACED scoring improved upon FACED scores in predicting forthcoming frequent acute exacerbations and hospitalization, the BSI outperformed both in this regard.