Perioperative Risk Assessment for Surgery of Consecutive Cases with Ventricular Septal Rupture: Seeking A Novel and Comprehensive Method.

Background: Ventricular septal rupture (VSR) is a rare but lethal complication occurring after acute myocardial infarction. The aim of our study was to review the single-center experience of surgery for VSR and seek a comprehensive evaluation process for early mortality.

Methods: Patients undergoing surgical repair for postinfarction VSR in our institution retrospectively were evaluated from Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2019. The endpoint of the study was mortality within 30 days after VSR surgery, which was divided into survivors and nonsurvivors. The calibration and discrimination of two risk evaluation systems (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk score) in total were compared by Hosmer-Lemeshow, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Risk factors in subsets were assessed by logistic regression analysis.

Results: Twenty-three patients undergoing surgery for VSR repair were reviewed, and the early mortality after surgery was 34.8% (N = 8). The expected mortality predicted by EuroSCORE II was 24.3%, and that of the STS score was 12.2%. Both the EuroSCORE II and STS risk evaluation systems showed positive calibration in predicting mortality (H-L: P = 0.117 and P = 0.346, respectively) but poor discriminative power (AUC=0.633 and 0.575). Significant predictors determined by univariate analysis were concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (P = 0.035) and postoperative continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) (P = 0.008).

Conclusion: Early mortality of VSR after surgery remains high, and the evaluation process is complicated. The performances of the two risk evaluation systems were not optimal, but EuroSCORE II was more accurate than STS. Patients with lower preoperation EuroSCORE II, concomitant CABG during repair, and no need for CRRT after surgery may have a better early survival rate.