Hypertension is the major predictor of poor outcomes among inpatients with COVID-19 infection in the UK: a retrospective cohort study.

Objective: To assess the impact of diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular diseases on inpatient mortality from COVID-19, and its relationship to ethnicity and social deprivation.

Design: Retrospective, single-centre observational study SETTING: Birmingham, UK.

Participants: 907 hospitalised patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from a multi-ethnic community, admitted between 1 March 2020 and 31 May 2020.

Main Outcome Measures: The primary analysis was an evaluation of cardiovascular conditions and diabetes in relation to ethnicity and social deprivation, with the end-point of inpatient death or death within 30 days of discharge. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to calculate HRs while adjusting for confounders.

Results: 361/907 (39.8%) died in hospital or within 30 days of discharge. The presence of diabetes and hypertension together appears to confer the greatest mortality risk (OR 2.75; 95% CI 1.80 to 4.21; p<0.001) compared with either condition alone. Age >65 years (OR 3.32; 95% CI 2.15 to 5.11), male sex (OR 2.04; 95% CI 1.47 to 2.82), hypertension (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.10 to 2.61) and cerebrovascular disease (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.31 to 2.68) were independently associated with increased risk of death. The mortality risk did not differ between the quintiles of deprivation. High-sensitivity troponin I was the best predictor of mortality among biomarkers (OR 4.43; 95% CI 3.10 to 7.10). Angiotensin-receptor blockers (OR 0.57; 95% CI 0.33 to 0.96) and ACE inhibitors (OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43 to 0.97) were not associated with adverse outcome. The Charlson Index of Comorbidity scores were significantly higher in non-survivors.

Conclusions: The combined prevalence of hypertension and diabetes appears to confer the greatest risk, where diabetes may have a modulating effect. Hypertension and cerebrovascular disease had a significant impact on inpatient mortality. Social deprivation and ethnicity did not have any effect once the patient was in hospital.