Negative surgical exploration in suspected gastrointestinal perforation: trend, preoperative predictors, and etiologies.

Background: Despite the rapid improvement of clinical science and imaging technology including computed tomography, the entity of negative surgical exploration in suspected gastrointestinal perforation (N-GIP) still exist. However, few studies have focused on this issue and most studies are case reports. We undertook this study to investigate the rates of N-GIP, and explore a set of possible preoperative predictors associated with N-GIP.

Methods: This was a retrospective study performed at the department of general surgery in our treatment center. All patients included were suspected gastrointestinal perforation (GIP) cases, aged 14 years and over, and underwent emergency surgery between 2009 and 2019. A predictive multivariable model of the presence of N-GIP was developed using logistic regression analysis.

Results: A total of 973 patients were identified and 30 (3.1%) were found to have no evidence of perforated gastrointestinal tract. The mean age of patients was 59.74 (range, 14-97) years, and 67.2 percent of the patients were males. The rates of N-GIP did not have a significant change over time (P=0.212 for trend). In multivariable analysis, absence of generalized peritonitis, duration of abdominal pain >19.6 hours, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) <3.80 were significant predictors of N-GIP. N-GIP was more common in patients with gastrointestinal tumors and foreign bodies. Five patients (16.7%) in N-GIP group experienced complications and the 90-day mortality rate was 6.7%.

Conclusions: The rates of N-GIP did not change significantly over time. N-GIP was associated with the absence of generalized peritonitis, duration of abdominal pain >19.6 hours, and NLR <3.80.