Predicting outcomes in older patients undergoing vascular surgery using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score.

Background: Frailty may explain why some older patients having vascular surgery are at high risk of adverse outcomes. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) has been designed specifically for use with administrative data and has three categories of frailty risk (low, intermediate and high). The aim of this study was to evaluate the HFRS in predicting mortality, and hospital use in older patients undergoing vascular surgery.

Methods: Routinely collected hospital data linked to death records were analysed for all patients aged 75 years or older who had undergone either endovascular or open vascular surgery between 2010 and 2012 in New South Wales, Australia. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to compare outcomes adjusted for patient and procedural factors, with and without frailty.

Results: Some 9752 patients were identified, of whom 1719 (17·6 per cent) had a high-risk HFRS. Patients in the high-risk frailty category had an adjusted odds ratio for death by 30 days after surgery of 4·15 (95 per cent c.i. 2·99 to 5·76) compared with those in the low-risk frailty category, and a similarly increased odds of death by 2 years (odds ratio 4·27, 3·69 to 4·95). Adding the HFRS to a model adjusted for age, sex, co-morbidity score, socioeconomic status, previous hospitalization and vascular procedure type improved the prediction of 2-year mortality and prolonged hospital stay, but there was minimal improvement for 30-day mortality and readmission.

Conclusion: Adjusting for the HFRS in addition to other patient and procedural risk factors provided greater discrimination of outcomes in this cohort of older patients undergoing vascular surgery.