Impact and projections of the COVID-19 epidemic on attendance and routine vaccinations at a pediatric referral hospital in Cameroon.

Background: At the beginning of March 2020, Cameroon experienced its first cases of infection with the new coronavirus (SARS-COV-2). Very quickly, there was a drop in the rate of hospital attendance. The purpose of this study was to observe the variations in the uptake of pediatric consultations and vaccinations in a pediatric hospital.

Methods: A descriptive and retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out using consultation and vaccination statistics from a pediatric hospital in the city of Yaoundé, political capital of Cameroon, from January 2016 to May 2020. Data were entered in Microsoft Excel and exported to R software (Version 3.3.3) for statistical analysis. First, time series raw data (before and after COVID-19) were plotted and the trend estimated by locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) methods. Then a classic seasonal decomposition was performed to distinguish between seasonal trends and irregular components using moving averages. The Webel-Ollech overall seasonality test (WO test) was also run to formally check for seasonality. The results of the study are presented as narrative tables and graphs.

Results: Following the partial confinement recommended by the government of Cameroon, the number of pediatric consultations decreased by 52% in April and by 34% in May 2020 compared with rates during the same periods in 2019 (P=0.00001). For antenatal visits, the rates dropped by 45% and 34%, respectively, in April and May 2020 compared with 2019. The demand for immunization services also declined. As a result, the demand for BCG vaccines, third-dose tracer vaccines (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis), polio, and MMR in children as well as tetanus vaccines in childbearing women dropped significantly.

Conclusion: The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by a significant drop in consultation and vaccination activities. If no action is taken to correct this phenomenon, the ensuing months could be marked by a considerable increase in patients, sometimes suffering from vaccine-preventable diseases. The death rate could increase considerably in the pediatric population.