A novel nomogram provides improved accuracy for predicting biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

Background: Various prediction tools have been developed to predict biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP); however, few of the previous prediction tools used serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) nadir after RP and maximum tumor diameter (MTD) at the same time. In this study, a nomogram incorporating MTD and PSA nadir was developed to predict BCR-free survival (BCRFS).

Methods: A total of 337 patients who underwent RP between January 2010 and March 2017 were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The maximum diameter of the index lesion was measured on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate independent predictors of BCR. A nomogram was subsequently developed for the prediction of BCRFS at 3 and 5 years after RP. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analyses were performed to identify the advantage of the new nomogram in comparison with the cancer of the prostate risk assessment post-surgical (CAPRA-S) score.

Results: A novel nomogram was developed to predict BCR by including PSA nadir, MTD, Gleason score, surgical margin (SM), and seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), considering these variables were significantly associated with BCR in both univariate and multivariate analyses (P < 0.05). In addition, a basic model including Gleason score, SM, and SVI was developed and used as a control to assess the incremental predictive power of the new model. The concordance index of our model was slightly higher than CAPRA-S model (0.76 vs. 0.70, P = 0.02) and it was significantly higher than that of the basic model (0.76 vs. 0.66, P = 0.001). Time-dependent ROC curve and decision curve analyses also demonstrated the advantages of the new nomogram.

Conclusions: PSA nadir after RP and MTD based on MRI before surgery are independent predictors of BCR. By incorporating PSA nadir and MTD into the conventional predictive model, our newly developed nomogram significantly improved the accuracy in predicting BCRFS after RP.