Five metastasis-related mRNAs signature predicting the survival of patients with liver hepatocellular carcinoma.

Backgrounds: Liver hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most malignant tumors, of which prognosis is unsatisfactory in most cases and metastatic of HCC often results in poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to construct a metastasis- related mRNAs prognostic model to increase the accuracy of prediction of HCC prognosis.

Methods: Three hundred seventy-four HCC samples and 50 normal samples were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, involving transcriptomic and clinical data. Metastatic-related genes were acquired from HCMBD website at the same time. Two hundred thirty-three samples were randomly divided into train dataset and test dataset with a proportion of 1:1 by using caret package in R. Kaplan-Meier method and univariate Cox regression analysis and lasso regression analysis were performed to obtain metastasis-related mRNAs which played significant roles in prognosis. Then, using multivariate Cox regression analysis, a prognostic prediction model was established. Transcriptome and clinical data were combined to construct a prognostic model and a nomogram for OS evaluation. Functional enrichment in high- and low-risk groups were also analyzed by GSEA. An entire set based on The International Cancer Genome Consortium(ICGC) database was also applied to verify the model. The expression levels of SLC2A1, CDCA8, ATG10 and HOXD9 are higher in tumor samples and lower in normal tissue samples. The expression of TPM1 in clinical sample tissues is just the opposite.

Results: One thousand eight hundred ninety-five metastasis-related mRNAs were screened and 6 mRNAs were associated with prognosis. The overall survival (OS)-related prognostic model based on 5 MRGs (TPM1,SLC2A1, CDCA8, ATG10 and HOXD9) was significantly stratified HCC patients into high- and low-risk groups. The AUC values of the 5-gene prognostic signature at 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 0.786,0.786 and 0.777. A risk score based on the signature was a significantly independent prognostic factor (HR = 1.434; 95%CI = 1.275-1.612; P < 0.001) for HCC patients. A nomogram which incorporated the 5-gene signature and clinical features was also built for prognostic prediction. GSEA results that low- and high-risk group had an obviously difference in part of pathways. The value of this model was validated in test dataset and ICGC database.

Conclusion: Metastasis-related mRNAs prognostic model was verified that it had a predictable value on the prognosis of HCC, which could be helpful for gene targeted therapy.